Belgium expected to maintain stable economic growth around 1 percent in coming years

According to new projections released by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB), the country is expected to maintain stable economic growth in the coming years, hovering near 1 percent annually. In 2025, the growth rate is forecast to reach 1.1 percent before dipping slightly to 1 percent for both 2026 and 2027, and then rising to 1.2 percent in 2028. Recent government measures announced at the end of November—such as increases in VAT and excise duties, along with tighter limits on automatic wage indexation—are expected to have only a minor impact on growth, instead mainly influencing inflation and labor costs.

The composition of growth is also expected to shift over the next few years. While household consumption will likely play a smaller role—due to the government’s steps to limit purchasing power—the NBB notes that higher-income families, more affected by wage index limits, tend to adjust their savings rather than their spending. As a result, the decline in consumption is not expected to fully match the decrease in purchasing power. Private sector investment is predicted to take a more prominent role in driving growth, whereas public investment is set to decline.

Despite the stable growth outlook, the NBB has reiterated concerns about Belgium’s rising public debt, calling the nation’s growing debt burden worrisome. On the labor front, the country is projected to create about 135,000 new jobs between 2025 and 2028, yet the unemployment rate is expected to remain near 6 percent. Challenges persist, particularly in the Walloon region, where the number of open positions is low and the share of long-term unemployed, lower-skilled, and over-50 jobseekers is high. On the positive side, the NBB forecasts real wage increases for workers in 2027 and 2028, helped by a faster narrowing of the labor cost difference with neighboring countries, potentially allowing for an additional 0.4 percent wage increase.