Dutch Employers Are Limiting Wage Increases Amid Economic Uncertainty
As economic uncertainty persists in the Netherlands, employers are showing less willingness to raise wages, with average increases falling and investment funds shrinking due to rising costs.
Dutch employers are becoming increasingly cautious about raising wages, citing ongoing economic uncertainty and rising costs. According to preliminary figures from AWVN, the main employer organization, average wage increases over the first eleven months of this year stood at just 3.9 percent, while November saw a rise of only 3.4 percent. In total, 15 new collective labor agreements were signed, covering around 260,000 employees. For context, two significant collective agreements in the past year and a half contributed to an overall average wage increase of nearly 6 percent during that period, but AWVN stresses that maintaining such high increases is unsustainable.
AWVN, along with business groups VNO-NCW and MKB-Nederland, recently presented their annual guidelines in the 2026 Working Conditions Note, recommending much lower wage agreements for next year compared to previous years. They emphasize that wage increases should match the financial strength of specific businesses or sectors, especially in uncertain times. Meanwhile, the FNV union continues to demand a 6 percent wage boost, but AWVN insists this target is not practical, especially given developments in industries like chemicals, finance, and financial services.
The financial sector in the Netherlands is also experiencing significant restructuring. APG has announced thousands of job cuts by 2030, and ABN AMRO expects to shed around 5,200 positions by 2028. Similar trends are seen in both industrial and commercial service sectors. Rabobank economist Hugo Erken notes that wage hikes peaked in the summer of 2024, forecasting average increases of 4.2 percent for next year and 3.3 percent by 2027. While inflation is predicted to hover between 2 and 2.5 percent, wage growth will likely vary by sector as the labor market remains tight and the population continues to age. The rise of artificial intelligence is also expected to eliminate some jobs, a shift that could further influence wage trends in the coming years.
