For the first time, the over-65 population in the Netherlands surpasses youth under 20
Recent statistics reveal that seniors now outnumber young people in the Netherlands, signaling a shift in the country's demographic makeup and raising questions about the future workforce and social services.
For the first time in Dutch history, the population aged 65 and over has surpassed those under 20, according to estimates released by the Netherlands’ Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). As of early 2025, the number of people over 65 is projected to reach 3.76 million, slightly outnumbering the 3.72 million under the age of 20. CBS forecasts that this demographic gap will only widen in coming years, with the senior population set to grow significantly while the youth population remains relatively stable.
Projections indicate an especially sharp rise in the number of people over 80, which could reach 2.1 million by 2070. By then, CBS expects the total over-65 population to exceed 6 million, compared with about 4.1 million young people. Meanwhile, the proportion of working-age residents (ages 20 to 65) is slowly decreasing; currently representing nearly 59% of the total population, this share is expected to drop to 55% by 2040. Despite this, CBS suggests there could be a slight rebound in the workforce ratio by 2070.
Migration continues to be the primary driver of population growth in the Netherlands, but the authorities predict it will decline after 2033. Coupled with an expected increase in the death rate—surpassing births as early as 2029—the overall rate of population growth is likely to slow. While there may be a rebound in birth rates, potentially rising to 198,000 annually by 2048 due to more women of childbearing age and rising birth trends among women over 30, high mortality rates are expected to keep population growth moderate in the coming decades.
